Natural rubber prices have surged 25-30% from their mid-2025 lows, reviving market sentiment. Yet for many Vietnamese rubber companies, profit growth is increasingly driven by one-off gains rather than core latex operations, underscoring both short term opportunities and long-term cyclical risks.

After a prolonged lull, natural rubber has entered a new recovery phase. The TSR20 contract on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) for March 2026 delivery is trading around 200 U.S. cents per kg, up 25-30% from the 150-160 U.S. cents/kg bottom seen in mid-2025.

Liquidity has improved markedly since late Q4/2025 and remained strong into early 2026, signaling renewed capital inflows into rubber commodities.

Following the Lunar New Year holiday, rubber futures in Japan and China climbed at least 6% in the first trading week. According to CITIC Securities Futures, supply is currently constrained due to the annual leaf-shedding season, when latex output declines sharply.

With demand expected to rise, price movements will depend largely on winter inventory drawdowns and tire manufacturers' operating rates.

Vietnam reflects similar tightening dynamics. According to Vietnam Customs data, rubber exports in 2025 reached 1.91 million tons worth nearly $3.33 billion, down 5.1% in volume and 2.6% in value year-on-year. Vietnam was among the few major producers to report a decline in export volume.

Part of the reason lies in stronger domestic demand, as Chinese tire makers such as Sailun Group, Guizhou Tyre, and Haohua Tire have invested in factories in Vietnam. In addition, some local rubber companies have deliberately curtailed sales volumes for different reasons.