A bountiful monsoon in Kerala has rekindled the hopes of natural rubber farmers, who expect to achieve at least 5-10 per cent production growth in this financial year.
Production of natural rubber in 2023-24 was at 8,57,000 tonnes. However, declining prices of block rubber in the international market were likely to affect domestic prices. Block rubber prices have dropped by Rs. 14 to Rs. 142 from Rs. 156 in the past two weeks. This may impact domestic prices of natural rubber, with more import options available to the industry.
The domestic market is expected to get fresh rubber from mid-June, and into July and August, thanks to good rains in the growing regions. Rain guarding of trees is in progress in many plantations.
The consuming industry, especially tyre manufacturers, are also procuring from the market, but keeping a close watch on overseas developments. Generally, the market is in a better position this season, without much price fluctuation.
According to Santosh Kumar, CEO, Harrisons Malayalam Ltd, early rains in the growing areas have raised expectations for a better harvest in the coming months. However, there are apprehensions about climate related uncertainties witnessed in recent years.
Extreme weather events are common and a good monsoon in the beginning of the year cannot always be an indicator of what lies ahead. It is not only the amount of rainfall, but the pattern of rainfall, the emergence of fungal disease and defoliation seen in the recent past, that has growers worried.
A slight negative trend has been witnessed in the international markets recently, based on these assumptions as also various geopolitical developments. Bulk of the material produced outside is in the form of TSR and its prices, which dominate the bulk of imports, could dent local prices. Natural rubber being a price sensitive commodity, unusual drops could lead to the cessation of tapping, which again, could lead to a drop in production in the country.
It is a tight rope for all the stakeholders in the value chain as the industry looks forward with cautious optimism. Overall, the expectation is for stable prices and better production if favourable weather prevails over the coming months.